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Financial modeling is the task of building an abstract representation (a model) of a real world financial situation.〔http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/financialmodeling.asp〕 This is a mathematical model designed to represent (a simplified version of) the performance of a financial asset or portfolio of a business, project, or any other investment. Financial modeling is a general term that means different things to different users; the reference usually relates either to accounting and corporate finance applications, or to quantitative finance applications. While there has been some debate in the industry as to the nature of financial modeling—whether it is a tradecraft, such as welding, or a science—the task of financial modeling has been gaining acceptance and rigor over the years.〔Nick Crawley (2010). (''Which industry sector would benefit the most from improved financial modelling standards?'' ), fimodo.com.〕 Typically, financial modeling is understood to mean an exercise in either asset pricing or corporate finance, of a quantitative nature. In other words, financial modelling is about translating a set of hypotheses about the behavior of markets or agents into numerical predictions; for example, a firm's decisions about investments (the firm will invest 20% of assets), or investment returns (returns on "stock A" will, on average, be 10% higher than the market's returns). ==Accounting== In corporate finance, investment banking, and the accounting profession ''financial modeling'' is largely synonymous with financial statement forecasting. This usually involves the preparation of detailed company specific models used for decision making purposes〔 and financial analysis. Applications include: *Business valuation, especially discounted cash flow, but including other valuation problems *Scenario planning and management decision making ("what is"; "what if"; "what has to be done"〔 §39 "Corporate Planning Models". See also, §294 "Simulation Model".〕) *Capital budgeting *Cost of capital (i.e. WACC) calculations *Financial statement analysis (including of operating- and finance leases, and R&D) *Project finance *Mergers and Acquisitions (i.e. estimating the future performance of combined entities) To generalize as to the nature of these models: firstly, as they are built around financial statements, calculations and outputs are monthly, quarterly or annual; secondly, the inputs take the form of “assumptions”, where the analyst ''specifies'' the values that will apply in each period for external / global variables (exchange rates, tax percentage, etc…; may be thought of as the model ''parameters''), and for internal / company specific ''variables'' (wages, unit costs, etc.…). Correspondingly, both characteristics are reflected (at least implicitly) in the mathematical form of these models: firstly, the models are in discrete time; secondly, they are deterministic. For discussion of the issues that may arise, see below; for discussion as to more sophisticated approaches sometimes employed, see Corporate finance# Quantifying uncertainty. Modelers are sometimes referred to (tongue in cheek) as "number crunchers", and are often designated "financial analyst". Typically, the modeler will have completed an MBA or MSF with (optional) coursework in "financial modeling". Accounting qualifications and finance certifications such as the CIIA and CFA generally do not provide direct or explicit training in modeling. At the same time, numerous commercial training courses are offered, both through universities and privately. Although purpose built software does exist, the vast proportion of the market is spreadsheet-based; this is largely since the models are almost always company specific. Also, analysts will each have their own criteria and methods for financial modeling.〔See for example, (Valuing Companies by Cash Flow Discounting: Ten Methods and Nine Theories ), Pablo Fernandez: University of Navarra - IESE Business School〕 Microsoft Excel now has by far the dominant position, having overtaken Lotus 1-2-3 in the 1990s. Spreadsheet-based modelling can have its own problems,〔Danielle Stein Fairhurst (2009). (Six reasons your spreadsheet is NOT a financial model ), fimodo.com〕 and several standardizations and "best practices" have been proposed.〔(Best Practice ), European Spreadsheet Risks Interest Group〕 "Spreadsheet risk" is increasingly studied and managed.〔 One critique here, is that model ''outputs'', i.e. line items, often incorporate “unrealistic implicit assumptions” and “internal inconsistencies”. (For example, a forecast for growth in revenue but without corresponding increases in working capital, fixed assets and the associated financing, may imbed unrealistic assumptions about asset turnover, leverage and / or equity financing.) What is required, but often lacking, is that all key elements are explicitly and consistently forecasted. Related to this, is that modellers often additionally "fail to identify crucial assumptions" relating to ''inputs'', "and to explore what can go wrong". Here, in general, modellers "use point values and simple arithmetic instead of probability distributions and statistical measures"〔Peter Coffee (2004). (''Spreadsheets: 25 Years in a Cell'' ), eWeek.〕 — i.e., as mentioned, the problems are treated as deterministic in nature — and thus calculate a single value for the asset or project, but without providing information on the range, variance and sensitivity of outcomes.〔http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/papers/probabilistic.pdf〕 Other critiques discuss the lack of adequate spreadsheet design skills,〔http://www.cluteinstitute.com/Programs/Las_Vegas_2009/Article%20323.pdf 〕 and of basic computer programming concepts.〔Blayney, P. (2009). Knowledge Gap? Accounting Practitioners Lacking Computer Programming Concepts as Essential Knowledge. In G. Siemens & C. Fulford (Eds.), Proceedings of World Conference on Educational Multimedia, Hypermedia and Telecommunications 2009 (pp. 151-159). Chesapeake, VA: AACE.〕 More serious criticism, in fact, relates to the nature of budgeting itself, and its impact on the organization.〔Loren Gary (2003). (''Why Budgeting Kills Your Company'' ), Harvard Management Update, May 2003.〕〔Michael Jensen (2001). (''Corporate Budgeting Is Broken, Let's Fix It'' ), Harvard Business Review, pp. 94-101, November 2001.〕 The Financial Modeling World Championships, known as ModelOff, have been held since 2012. ModelOff is a global online financial modeling competition which culminates in a Live Finals Event for top competitors. From 2012-2014 the Live Finals were held in New York City and in 2015 they will be held in London.〔(【引用サイトリンク】title=ModelOff 2015 Financial Modeling World Championships )〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Financial modeling」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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